PRESS RELEASE*
The following issues are scheduled for discussion at the April 26, 2012 April 26, 2012 Government Presidium meeting
1. Long-term scenario prediction of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation until 2030
The scenarios envisage several outcomes. Two main long-term scenarios of social and economic development are focused on in greater detail - one conservative and one innovative. These assume:
- the moderate growth of the price of Urals oil from $97 per barrel in 2013 to $158 per barrel in 2030;
- the positive development of the world economy with an average annual growth rate of 3.4% during 2012-2030;
- the relative stabilisation of the total population during 2013-2020 at 143.3-143.7 million.
The conservative scenario (energy and commodity based) envisages the increased specialisation of Russia as a world commodity producer by implementing Russia’s competitive potential in energy and transport, and the aggressive modernisation of the fuel and energy and commodity sectors while civilian high technology and medium technology sectors continue to lag behind somewhat. The average GDP growth in 2011-2030 is predicted at 3.6%, the average industrial output at 3.4%, investments in basic assets at 5.3%, real wages at 4.3% and retail trade at 4.1%.
This scenario would ensure a balanced federal budget after 2015.
The innovation scenario is proposed as a target and is based on the use of the competitive advantages of the Russian economy in new science-intensive sectors, “the knowledge economy”, increased investment and innovation-driven economic growth, the strengthening of Russia’s position in the world economy and the creation of a modern transport infrastructure, the modernisation of the energy and raw materials system and large-scale changes to the structure of Russian exports.
The average GDP growth in 2011-2030 is predicted at around 4.4%, industry growth at 4%, investments in basic assets at 6.4%, real wages at 5.2% and retail trade at 4.8%.
The average annual inflation would drop from 4.8% in 2012 to 3% in 2030, with the tariffs for the services of natural monopolies outstripping the rate of inflation. This scenario envisages a substantial improvement in economic efficiency: labour productivity will have grown by 2.5 times by 2030 compared with 2010, the share of the knowledge economy, machine-building, telecommunications in the GDP will increase by 1.8 times, while energy consumption in relation to the GDP will drop by 46%. In terms of the size of its economy, Russia would move from sixth place in 2011 to fifth place in 2014-2021, while its share in the world economy would grow from 3% in 2010 to 3.7% of the GDP in 2030.
Under the innovation scenario, the Federal Budget deficit in 2015-2030 would remain at 1.2-0.9% of GDP, and national debt would increase to 25-30% of GDP by 2030.
An accelerated growth scenario has also been developed, based on more favourable demographic trends, an increased rate of accumulation, an intensive inflow of capital and the growth of private sector debts and a high degree of macroeconomic imbalance, while the average annual GDP growth would be at 4.7%.
An additional environmental variant of the innovation scenario proceeds from the significant toughening of environmental requirements for economic development, including those of the Kyoto Protocol (which may reduce economic growth rate by 0.3-0.5% after 2020).
2. Outlook on the main parameters of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation and caps on prices (tariffs) for products (services) of natural monopolies in 2013 and the planning period of 2014 and 2015.
The scenario updates the 2012 assessment of certain macroeconomic indicators by comparison with similar data of the amended forecast of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation for 2012 and the planning period of 2013 and 2014.
In particular, the predicted Urals oil price has been revised, increasing from $100 to $115 per barrel, the retail trade from 5.5% to 6.3% and the real effective exchange rate of the rouble from 0.2% to 4.4%. The predicted GDP growth has been decreased from 3.7% to 3.4%, investments in the basic assets from 7.8% to 6.6% and the average annual inflation rate from 5.3% to 4.8%.
The moderately optimistic outcome is proposed as the main scenario for determining the federal budget parameters for 2013-2015. This would see the economy develop in accordance with an active government policy aimed at stimulating economic growth and modernisation by improving the investment climate, competitiveness and the effectiveness of budgetary spending. It also envisages a transformation in the development of human capital and science aimed at promoting innovation.
The price of Urals oil is assumed at $97 per barrel in 2013, $101 per barrel in 2014 and $104 per barrel in 2015.
GDP would be around 65.8 trillion roubles in 2013 (a growth of 3.8%), 73.4 trillion roubles in 2014 (up 4.4%) and 81.5 trillion roubles in 2015 (up 4.7%). The rate of growth of investments in basic assets would increase from 6.4% in 2013 to 7.8% in 2015 and retail trade growth from 5% to 5.7%.
Industrial output would increase by 3.4% in 2013, 4.1% in 2014 and 4.2% in 2015.
Real disposable incomes would increase by 4.5% in 2013 (with real wages going up by 5.4%), by 5.3% in 2014 (real wages - 6.3%) and 5.2% in 2015.
Inflation would drop to 4.5-5.5% in 2013 and would stay below 4-5% in 2014-2015.
The conservative outcome would see the continued low level of competitiveness of domestic goods against imports, less spending on infrastructure, a tougher budgetary policy due to the stagnation of state investment demand and a lower rate of growth of public sector wages and military salaries. The average economic growth rate in 2012-2015 would be 3.1-4.1%, which is 0.4% less than under the moderately optimistic scenario.
Additional outcome A assumes a dramatic fall in oil prices in 2013-2015 to $82-85 per barrel and a drop in demand for Russian exports, including gas. As a result, even in the absence of negative shocks due to the massive outflow of capital and a credit squeeze, the rouble would weaken significantly and inflation would spike to 8-10%. Under these conditions, the Russian economy would grow at the rate of 2-4% in 2013-2015.
Additional outcome C would see the preservation of high oil prices (at $125 per barrel in 2012-2013) and $115-120 per barrel in 2014-2015). GDP would grow by 4.1-4.7% in 2013-2015.
3. Draft federal law On Introducing Amendments to the Federal Law On the Federal Budget for 2012 and the Planning Period of 2013 and 2014
This draft federal law has been submitted by the Ministry of Finance.
The draft law is based on the results of the federal budget implementation in the first quarter of 2012, current information on the implementation of the federal budget in January-March 2012 and expected results of social and economic development in 2012.
The draft law envisages the introduction of amendments to the federal law On the Federal Budget for 2012 and the Planning Period 2013 and 2014 with regards to the indicators approved for 2012-2014.
The draft law assumes the following indicators of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2012.
|
Indicator |
2012 |
|
|
Budget law |
Revised prediction |
|
|
GDP, billion roubles |
58,683.0 |
60,590.0 |
|
Urals oil price ($ per barrel) |
100.0 |
115.0 |
|
Consumer price index (Dec./Dec.) |
6.0 |
6.0 |
|
Exchange rate of the dollar (annualised) against the rouble |
28.7 |
29.2 |
|
Wage fund (billion roubles) |
14,472.0 |
14,750.0 |
The draft law updates the main characteristics of the 2012 federal budget in accordance with changes in the expected results of social and economic development in 2012
Billion roubles
|
Indicator |
Budget law |
Draft law |
|
Total revenue |
11,799.9 |
12,677.0 |
|
% of GDP |
20.1 |
20.9 |
|
Oil and gas revenues |
5,574.9 |
6,383.3 |
|
Non-oil and gas revenues |
6,205.0 |
6,293.7 |
|
Spending |
12,656.4 |
12,745.1 |
|
% of GDP |
21.6 |
21.0 |
|
Deficit |
-876.6 |
-68.1 |
|
% of GDP |
-1.5 |
-0.1 |
The draft law would approve the federal budget spending in 2012 to the amount of 12,745.1 billion roubles, which is 88.7 billion roubles more than that approved by the Budget Law.
Furthermore, the Ministry of Finance proposes to distribute the 46.9 billion roubles in budget resources saved, which include investment spending (due to lack of the necessary documentation), the servicing of the state domestic debt and the fulfillment of state guarantees.
Thus, additional budget allocations to the amount of 135.6 billion roubles would be directed to finance the following measures:
1. 43.4 billion roubles for improving the quality of life of all citizens and for social security for certain categories, including:
-to provide the veterans of the Great Patriotic War (1941-1945) with housing, 24.3 billion roubles;
-compensation for lost housing or property to victims of the crisis resolution in the Chechen Republic, 3.4 billion roubles;
-completing measures to provide servicemen of the federal executive bodies that are equated to military service under the law with permanent and service-related housing and the transition towards providing permanent housing for servicemen discharged in line with planned procedure, 2.7 billion roubles;
-measures connected with the relocation of residents from a zone subject to increasing landslides (Chelyabinsk Region), 2.0 billion roubles;
-major housing repair in hospitality zones in the city of Kazan for the 27 World Summer Universiade in 2013, 2.0 billion roubles.
2. 15.6 billion roubles to raise remuneration and salaries, including:
-additional payments to employees of interior affairs bodies in Moscow and the Moscow Region, 10.7 billion roubles;
-increasing wages for the workers of contractual units of the federal fire service in connection with the replacement of military with civilian staff, 3.4 billion roubles.
3. 12.0 billion roubles for informatisation, including:
- the creation of a system of video transmission from polling stations on the territory of the Russian Federation, 11.0 billion roubles;
-the introduction and development of the official website of the Russian Federation as part of the implementation of the Federal Law on the Purchase of Goods and Services by Certain Types of Legal Entities, 0.5 billion roubles.
4. 21.2 billion roubles, for modernisation, material and technical retrofitting and capital repair, including:
-the purchase of Russian-made gas-powered buses, 3.5 billion roubles;
-the purchase of specialised forest fire fighting technology and equipment, 3.5 billion roubles;
-payment for utilities and operational services of the Defence Ministry, 2.3 billion roubles;
-modernisation and refitting of Mineralnye Vody Airport, 0.6 billion roubles.
5. 9.3 billion roubles, for contributions to international organisations and international events, including:
-compensation of allocations for the payment of dues to the budget of the Eurasian Economic Commission in 2012, 4.0 billion roubles;
-subsidies to Autonomous Non-Commercial Organisation Sports Broadcasting for acquiring exclusive rights to cover the 22nd Winter Olympic Games and 11th Paralympic Winter Games in Sochi in 2014 and the 31st Summer Olympics and 15th Summer Paralympics in Rio de Janeiro in 2016, 2.0 billion roubles;
-the development and proper maintenance of the property of the State Palace of Congresses complex as part of the preparation for the G20 meeting, 1.0 billion roubles;
-subsidies for preparing for and holding the 27th World Summer Universiade in Kazan in 2013, 0.9 billion roubles.
6. 15.0 billion roubles in investment spending, including:
- the reconstruction of the Tovstonogov Grand Drama Theatre, St Petersburg, 3.3 billion roubles;
-the building of a bridge across the River Ob in Novosibirsk, 2 billion roubles.
-measures to strengthen the seismic resistance of buildings and replace decrepit housing in the Republics of Tyva, Khakassia and Gorny Altai in connection with the earthquake on December 27, 2011, 2.0 billion roubles;
-the building of a second stage at the Mariinsky Theatre, St Petersburg, 1.3 billion roubles.
7. 19.1 billion roubles for any other federal budget spending, including:
-the use of budget allocations received by the Defence Ministry from the proceeds of sales of released movable and immovable military and other property in operational management of the Defence Ministry to finance measures connected with the reform of the Armed Forces, other troops and military units, law enforcement and other bodies, 10.2 billion roubles;
-projects conducted by state academic funds (the Russian Fundamental Research Fund, the Russian State Academic Fund), 2.5 billion roubles;
-covering exchange rate losses due to the expected growth of the dollar from 28.7 roubles to 29.2 roubles, 2.4 billion roubles.
4. Draft federal law On Introducing an Amendment to Article 7 of the Federal Law On the Coming into Force of the Housing Code of the Russian Federation
This draft federal law has been submitted by the Ministry of Regional Development.
Under the Constitutional Court ruling on the case of the test of constitutionality of Article 7 of the Federal Law On the Coming into Force of the Housing Code of the Russian Federation, in connection with the complaint of citizens A.Yepanechnikov and E.Yepanechnikova, whereby Article 7 of the Federal Law On the Coming Into Force of the Housing Code of the Russian Federation was declared unconstitutional, violating its Articles 19 (Parts 1 and 2), 40 (Part 1) and 55 (Part 3) to the extent to which the regulation it holds – as interpreted by law enforcers – precludes the application of the regulations of the Housing Code on social rent in relation to the use of housing premises in apartment blocks that belonged to state or municipal enterprises or state or municipal institutions and were used as halls of residence, if such premises had been legitimately made available to citizens after March 1, 2005 (the effective date of the Housing Code) and the buildings in which they are located were also put under the jurisdiction of local government bodies after that date.
The statement of the Constitutional Court says that the introduction of Article 7 of the Federal Law aimed to protect the rights of those citizens who, after the handover of halls of residence to the local government bodies which had previously been owned by state or municipal enterprises (institutions) that performed with regard to the said citizens the function of landlord and employer, turned out to be the users of the dwelling space belonging to another landlord who is not their employer, which precluded the use of such premises as halls of residents and accordingly the eviction of the occupants on grounds stipulated for eviction from specialised housing.
In reality, this changed the legal status of these citizens and thus called for a change of the legal regulations of the dwelling space occupied.
The current language of Article 7 of the Federal Law proposes the application of the Housing Code regulations on social rent contracts regarding the use of dwelling space in halls of residence that formerly belonged to state or municipal enterprises (institutions and have been handed over under the jurisdiction of local government bodies).
Article 7 of the Federal Law does not contain restrictions on expanding the legal regulations of social rent to the use of dwelling space in halls of residence based on the date of the transfer of residential houses used as halls of residence under the jurisdiction of local government bodies: before or after the introduction of the Housing Code.
At the same time in law enforcement and court practice, Article 7 of the Federal Law is interpreted as precluding the application of the Housing Code on social rent contracts regarding the use of dwelling space in residential houses that formerly belonged to state or municipal enterprises (institutions) and were used as halls of residence and were transferred under the jurisdiction of local government bodies after March 1, 2005, i.e. after the effective date of the Housing Code, as well as in the event citizens moved into such dwelling space after the said date.
The proposed amendment of Article 7 of the Federal Law is aimed at removing ambiguities over the issue of applying the norm of the law in time and will rule out its misinterpretation in law enforcement practice.
5. Draft federal law On Introducing an Amendment to Article 73 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation
This draft law has been submitted by the Ministry of Justice.
Following the results of the Security Council Meeting, up for consideration was the issue of limiting the possibility of applying suspended sentences in the event of repeated crime and (or) a serious crime with regard to persons who relapse into crime during the probation period in the event of suspended sentence, as well as during the remaining unserved part of the punishment in the event of release on parole.
The draft law would introduce amendments to the Criminal Code that sets out the conditions when a suspended sentence may not be passed:
-in the event of a serious or very serious crime during the probation period, in the event of the suspended sentence, or during the unserved part of the sentence in the event of release on parole;
-in the event of a dangerous or very dangerous relapse.
The measures stipulated under the law have been prompted by the growing number of serious and very serious crimes perpetrated by convicts during the probation period or during the unserved part of the sentence and are aimed at intensifying the fight against recidivist crime.
6. Draft federal law On Introducing Amendments to the Federal Law On the Basic Principles of Preventing Homelessness and Juvenile Delinquency
This draft federal law has been submitted by the Ministry of Education and Science.
The draft law introduces amendments to the federal law On the Basic Principles of the System of Preventing Homelessness and Juvenile Delinquency in the section that sets down the procedure for forming commissions for juvenile cases and the protection of the rights of minors and the procedure for the exercise of certain state powers by these commissions.
The draft law proposes to consolidate the principle whereby the said commissions are formed by the supreme executive body of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation.
As regards the exercise of certain state powers by the commissions, the draft law would establish that on issues within their scope of authority the commissions pass resolutions that are binding for the bodies and institutions of the system of preventing child homelessness and juvenile delinquency in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities.
7. Draft Federal Law On the Ratification of the Agreement between the Russian Federation and the French Republic on Cooperation in Child Adoption
This draft federal law has been submitted by the Ministry of Education and Science and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The agreement between the Russian Federation and the French Republic on cooperation in child adoption was signed on November 18, 2011 in Moscow.
The treaty is aimed at creating a legal framework for the development of cooperation between the two countries in the field of child adoption. The main aim is to secure the interests of the children given over for international adoption. The agreement is based on the principles and provisions of the Convention on the Rights of the Child of November 20, 1989 and the Convention on Protection of Children and Cooperation in Respect of Intercountry Adoption of May 29, 1993.
8. Draft Federal Law On Adopting Amendments to the Agreement on the Establishment of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development approved by Resolutions of the Governing Board of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development No.137 of September 30, 2011 and No.138 of September 30, 2011
This draft federal law has been submitted by the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Under Article 1 of the Agreement, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development carries out its activities in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Mongolia.
Resolution No.137 of the EBRD Board of Governors of September 30, 2011 approved an amendment to Article 1 of the Agreement that expands the geographical mandate of the bank to the southern and eastern Mediterranean region (Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan).
To enable the EBRD to start its activities in the new region without waiting for the adoption of the said amendment to Article 1, Resolution 138 of the Board of Governors also approved an amendment to Article 18 of the Agreement that allows the use of special funds under the bank’s management in any EBRD member country, and not only in the countries of operations.
Under the Federal Law On International Treaties of the Russian Federation the amendments to the Agreement must take the form of a federal law.
9. Introducing amendments to certain Government acts on Marine and River Transport
This draft resolution has been submitted by the Ministry of Transport.
The draft would introduce amendments to the provisions on the Transport Ministry, the Federal Marine and River Fleet Agency and the Federal Transport Supervision Service, to wit:
- The Statute on the Transport Ministry would empower the latter to adopt regulations on the investigation of accidents or incidents at sea and to formulate rules on the clear holding of logbooks;
- In the Statute on the Federal Marine and River Transport Agency, the powers of the Agency in the field of navigation and hydrographic support on the Northern Sea Route, in seaports and on the approaches to them will be formulated more clearly and the agency will be vested with powers to approve construction of navigation equipment in the zone covered;
- In the Statute on the Federal Transport Supervision Service, the Service will be vested with powers to investigate accidents or incidents at sea and supervise the activities of organisations that provide marine piloting services.
10. Introducing Amendments to the Statute on the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment
This draft resolution has been submitted by the Ministry of Natural Resources.
The draft resolution has been developed to establish the powers of the Ministry of Natural Resources to approve the requirements for situating an artificial area of land on a water object that is wholly or partly federal property, as well as the power to approve the composition and content of the feasibility studies for the creation of an artificial area of land.
The adoption of the draft resolution will provide legal grounds for the preparation of documentation to support decisions on the creation of artificial areas of land in bodies of water for the purpose of the construction of buildings, structures and comprehensive development thereof.
11. Introducing an amendment to the Statute on the Ministry of Economic Development
This draft resolution has been submitted by the Ministry of Economic Development.
The draft is aimed at implementing the federal law On Introducing Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation Aimed at Revising the Remedies Available to Creditors in Reducing the Authorized Capital, Changing the Requirements to Business Entities in the Event of Discrepancy Between the Authorized Capital and the Net Asset Value and envisages the appointment by the Government of a federal executive body that establishes the procedure and criteria for selecting the operator of the Consolidated Federal Register of Information on the activities of legal entities and the procedure for forming and maintaining the register.
Under the draft resolution, the Ministry of Economic Development is empowered to issue regulatory legal acts that determine the procedure and criteria for selecting the operator of the register, the procedure for forming and maintaining the register, the procedure and timeframe for the entering of data in the register by legal entities and the authorized federal executive body responsible for the state registration of legal entities, the list of data on the activities of legal entities included in the register, as well as the procedure, timeframe and cost of posting the said data on the Internet.
12. Introducing amendments to the Statute on the Ministry of Economic Development (to harmonise Clause 5.2.28 77 of the Statute on the Ministry of Economic Development with the Federal Law No.383-FZ of December 3, 2011 On Introducing Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation)
This draft resolution has been submitted by the Ministry of Economic Development.
Under subclause “B” of clause 17, Article 22 of the Federal Law On Introducing Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation rephrasing is proposed for parts 7 and 8 of Article 28 of the Federal Law On Organising the Delivery of State and Municipal Services.
The draft resolution would harmonise Clause 5.2.2877 on the Statute on the Ministry of Economic Development by rephrasing parts 7 and 8 of Article 28 of the federal law On Organising the Delivery of State and Municipal Services.
13. Introducing amendments to certain acts of the Government of the Russian Federation
Under the federal law On the Basic Principles of Protection of the Health of Citizens in the Russian Federation, the statutes on the Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development, Roszdravnadzor and the Federal Medical Biological Agency (FMBA) are augmented by regulations on the exercise of their powers in the sphere of healthcare (a total of 105 powers), including:
- approving acts that regulate the procedure of the activities of medical organisations and the delivery of medical assistance to citizens, including the procedure for the organisation and delivery of medical assistance by the Russian Service of Emergency Medicine, the procedures for various types of medical certification, the procedure for patients to choose their physician, and acts that establish requirements for medical workers as well as the procedure for handling medical goods and medical waste;
- the keeping of federal registers of persons suffering from various diseases, the management of the Russian Emergency Medicine Service, the implementation of measures in the event of emergency situations, statistical observations in healthcare, the coordination of the agents within the healthcare system, the formation of a list of rare diseases and the organisation of medical examination procedures;
-the specification of supervisory functions in healthcare.
Under the federal law On Narcotics and Psychotropic Substances, the Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development is authorised to approve the procedure for printing and distributing blank prescriptions for narcotics and psychotropic substances.
Under the federal law On Physical Culture and Sport in the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development is authorised to approve the procedure for medical checkups of those wishing to engage in sports and the list of counter-indications for participation in sporting events with due account of the specific features of individual sports.
The draft resolution has been developed in order to harmonise the statutes on the Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development, Roszdravnadzor and FMBA according to amendments in legislation.
14. Introducing an amendment to the Statute on the Federal Road Agency
This draft resolution has been submitted by the Transport Ministry.
The draft resolution would empower the Federal Road Agency to file applications on behalf of the Russian Federation for the state registration of the Russian Federation’s ownership of federal roads, of plots of land designated for the hard shoulders of said roads, as well as the ownership of plots of land legally confiscated for federal roads.
15. The issue to the Government of Sakhalin Region of state housing certificates based on court rulings to be granted to citizens who lost their houses as a result of the earthquake on the territory of the Nevelsky District, Sakhalin Region, on August 2, 2007
This draft executive order has been submitted by the Ministry for Emergencies.
As a result of the earthquake that hit the territory of the Nevelsky District, Sakhalin Region on August 2, 2007, the people have undergone much hardship. Considerable damage has been caused to housing and utilities, social amenities and to federal property, with 7761 persons (3406 families) being deprived of their homes.
Under the executive orders of the Russian Government, the Government of the Sakhalin Region has been issued 2117 state housing certificates to be distributed among the citizens who lost their housing as a result of the earthquake.
The draft executive order would authorise the issue to the Government of the Sakhalin Region in 2012 of three state housing certificates (in accordance with court rulings and based on the results of the consideration of the proof submitted by the Government of the Sakhalin Region) to be distributed among citizens who lost their housing as a result of the emergency.
Moscow, April 25, 2012
* Press releases by the Department of Press Service and Information are based on the materials submitted by the executive federal bodies for discussion by the Government Presidium.